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Insiders, at Least, See Reason to Smile

CORPORATE insiders generally don’t believe that stocks are about to enter a major bear market. On the contrary, they are more bullish than they have been at any time since late 2005, when the bull market was very much alive and well.

That’s the conclusion of an analysis of insider transactions, as conducted by H. Nejat Seyhun, a finance professor at the University of Michigan who has devoted much of his academic career to studying corporate insiders’ behavior. His analysis goes back as far as 1975 and extends through March 14 this year, so it takes into account how corporate insiders have reacted to some of the darkest days of the current credit crisis.

Corporate insiders are a company’s officers, directors and largest shareholders. It stands to reason that they know more about their companies’ prospects than outsiders do, which explains why many investors pay close attention to trends in their purchases or sales. It is possible to follow those trends

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