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Insiders, at Least, See Reason to Smile
is 5.7 percent lower today than it was then.

But the Insider Trading Index has had some notable successes, too. One of its highest readings over the last three decades, 84.7, was at the end of October 1987. That was less than two weeks after the stock market crashed. Then as now, many investors were worried about the financial system’s solvency, but insiders apparently believed that stocks represented great value. The stock market gained 17.1 percent over the next 12 months.

Of course, it would be unwise to rely entirely on Professor Seyhun’s index, or on any other single market indicator, for that matter. After all, there are countless ways an otherwise rising market can be derailed. But based on the latest insider data, at least, the intelligent bet would appear to be that stock prices will rise over the coming year.

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